Joe Biden has unparalleled experience in international issues. Senator, he was chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee; Vice-President, he was in the front row. At the head of an Administration, the majority of whose members are experienced, it is he who sets the priorities. Its strategic adversary is China.
The Empire of Silence, too aggressive commercially, especially with its Silk Road program, challenges American power and tries to supplant it in several regions of the world. For Biden, the priority of priorities is to contain this rising power that he considers threatening.
Despite the strength of the news, Russia, in the eyes of Biden, is only a military threat to Europe, an important ally for the USA. The noise of the boot in Ukraine can be contained, because Russia has economic weaknesses, and the Administration intends to play on it by threatening Putin with heavy sanctions.
Iran, beyond the nuclear issue which threatens Israel's security, is a threat to regional stability as a whole, via its armed creatures in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and above all in Yemen.
The real American puzzle is the behavior vis-à-vis these entities over-armed by Iran. Political choices are complicated by the humanitarian dimension, and the moral weight of the USA.
How to avoid a humanitarian tragedy in Afghanistan without maintaining a minimum of relations with the Taliban regime?
The Houthis threaten the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, but there too, declaring them a terrorist organization threatens humanitarian aid. The Lebanese Hizbollah is holding the functioning of the state hostage and the Iraqi small groups are preventing any stability and any independence, even relative, vis-à-vis Iran.
The choice to disengage from the Middle East has a cost, that of coming to terms with these groups, which unfortunately are often representative of part of the population.
We must deal with Tehran, which is not easy, strengthen the central states, which has not been a success for 20 years and above all involve other actors interested in the stability of the region.
The Biden Administration must prove its skill on this file in the upcoming midterm. The Middle East cannot be completely abandoned, even if the obsession is China.