The place taken by the Ukrainian question at the heart of the international news could make believe that we are plunged back into the middle of the Cold War.
On the one hand, the Russians play the role of big bad guys: they are suspected of wanting to reconstitute the USSR under another name. The announced invasion of Ukraine, followed by its eventual annexation, would be the political translation of this desire. The Russians would pile up troops on the border of the latter and would multiply the provocations against it
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On the other hand, Americans present themselves as guardians of global democracy. On behalf of Westerners, they warn Russia: if it enters the territory of Ukraine, they promise a strong reaction. Which ? We do not really see on what basis they would react, since Ukraine, precisely, is not a member of NATO. And why would Canada allow itself to be dragged into this quarrel?
NATO: the big word has been launched. Two visions clash. Ukraine would like to join NATO and even the European Union: it would thus hang its destiny on the West. But a country is not master of its geography and Ukraine is glued to Russia, which would see in this membership a form of NATO encroachment on its natural zone of influence. In other words, she would see it as a form of aggression, as if NATO were trying to encircle her. What would the Americans say if Canada wanted to ally itself militarily with Russia?
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Are the Russians completely crazy when they suspect the Americans of always wanting to expand the borders of their empire? Let us ask the question directly: is it really Ukraine's vocation to join NATO and the European Union? The answer is simple: no. By pushing it there, and by treating it de facto as a country integrated into the Atlantic alliance, the United States is increasing its provocations, and Russia, obviously, wants to make it clear that it intends to pursue the policy of its interests.
Besides, are other Western countries as supportive of the American vision as we would like to believe? Germany depends on Russian gas. France is divided on the Russian question between two contrasting visions of its foreign policy. Do Western European states really have an interest in getting sucked into the imperial ambitions of the United States?
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The post-Cold War world, where Americans thought they were called to unchallenged domination of the planet, is behind us. Old countries emerge and become new powers. I am not thinking only of Russia, but also of China, of India, of all those who no longer tolerate Western hegemony over the world.
To say all this is not to show any sympathy for Putin's Russia. Would those who fantasize about the Russian leader as a great leader really want to live in Russia? Raymond Aron, in his time, had published his plea for a decadent Europe. I prefer our imperfect democracies to virile regimes that claim to hold the human beast with an iron fist.
This does not exempt us from demonstrating realism in foreign policy.
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