War in Ukraine: where does the European Union stand?
Eight years after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, troop movements raise fears of a new Moscow offensive in Ukraine. In this ongoing conflict in the east of the Old Continent, what are the role and the objectives of the Europeans?
Demonstration in support of the Euromaidan movement in Kiev, Ukraine, in December 2013 - Credits: Alexandra Nessa Gnatoush / Flickr CC BY-NC 2.0.
The Ukrainian conflict originated in September 2013, when President Viktor Yanukovych decided to unilaterally withdraw from an association agreement with the European Union. In response, demonstrations were organized spontaneously in Kiev's Independence Square (known as Maidan) by supporters of a rapprochement with the EU. Police repression is fierce, and the demonstrators are gathering more and more support. The escalation of violence in early 2014 led to the death of several demonstrators, but also of police officers.
In February 2014, the German, French and Polish foreign ministers as well as Russian representatives tried to find a way out of the crisis with the Ukrainian authorities. But on February 21, 2014, Viktor Yanukovych fled the Ukrainian capital. Accused of human rights violations, he was dismissed the next day by the Ukrainian Parliament.
The Assembly plans presidential elections for May 25, 2014, and appoints an interim president. However, the regions of eastern Ukraine, mostly Russian-speaking and opposed to the Maidan movement, do not recognize the new institutions. In response, Parliament withdrew the official language status of regional languages, including Russian, which set fire to the powder.
In March 2014, an armed insurrection led by unidentified forces seized power in the Ukrainian autonomous region of Crimea, and demanded attachment to Russia. After the organization of a local referendum, the region signs a treaty with Russia to seal its membership of the federation. The result of the referendum is not recognized by Ukraine or the European Union.
The revolts are gaining importance in the eastern region of Ukraine, the Donbass, until the intervention of the Ukrainian army to fight against a pro-Russian armed insurgency. The first fighting broke out as the provinces (“oblast”) of Donetsk and Luhansk (Lougansk in Russian), which form the Donbass, proclaimed themselves independent “people's republics”, respectively on April 7 and 27, 2014. No state recognizes these declarations of independence, not even Russia.
Ukraine, Russia, Europe… what are their objectives?
Ukraine: For the Ukrainian government, it is essential to regain control over its entire territory, and therefore Crimea and the eastern part of Donbass. In fact, recovering the separatist regions seems difficult for Ukraine, which would have to deal with a population that is often more favorable to Russia. But a large part of the Ukrainians want to see them return to Kiev.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, elected in April 2019, wants a rapprochement with the European Union. A desire shared by the European institutions. “We want to go even further in our relationship with Ukraine,” said European Council President Charles Michel after the EU-Ukraine summit on October 6, 2020, the penultimate.
Ukraine also wishes to join NATO, which would imply the intervention of member countries of the Atlantic Alliance in the event of military aggression. A perspective opposed by Russia, which is asking the United States and its allies for legal assurances excluding any enlargement of NATO to Ukraine. If the members of the military organization are reluctant to welcome a new Ukrainian member in the immediate future, given the geopolitical impact of such a decision, they nevertheless reject the request of the Kremlin and maintain that Kiev will eventually join the Atlantic Alliance.